London metals futures market, recent metal prices volatile. April 21 prices have fallen sharply, lead and nickel declined the most, are down 6 percent, copper has fallen by 4.5%, the domestic market price of SHFE declined, down 4.8 percent copper; and April 22 and by the London Metal prices pick-up.

Points:

Recalling the pre-factors copper support. Since the beginning of the year, a strong rebound in metal prices and the overall performance of a "weak with the strong external" characteristics, particularly after the price of copper into the week in April are up to 5% or more, and since March have shown a rapid decline in stock of the situation. Since March we will be rapid increases in prices due to the support of the national season收儲and copper demand is expected to lead to a rapid increase in imports.

Lack of national energy收儲. Since the beginning of the "China factor" makes up the metal market, "with strong outside the weak" pattern, the State Industrial Promotion收儲planning is an important step. Although the effect of national收儲obvious, since the beginning of the price of copper rose nearly 50%, but in the current high price the country once again under the strong hand to purchase overseas copper is unlikely, and idle production capacity is currently shown signs of recovery, capacity utilization and production has picked up the background,收儲support for copper prices has shown fatigue.

. Season uncertain demand. Over the years, "spring market" is very clear characteristics, regardless of production, consumption, or the price of copper has such a law of the production and consumption are seasonal regularity. Unlike in previous years but this year is the early support of the copper is an important factor in the "China factor" of speculation, by the State Reserve and the impact of the first quarter of this year, monthly copper production is much higher than in previous years, the price is at historic lows, the market of copper consumption is expected to support and tension the spot price of copper has rebounded to 4500 U.S. dollars / tons of high level, the current State Reserve close to downplay the impact of copper, the current rising price of copper has also been the fight against inertia. At the same time, continuous decline in the current inventory of copper there is still a supportive role, but although the remaining spot in a tense situation, domestic imports are continuing, but the decline in LME copper inventories are now an endless flow of China, coupled with the recovery of production , seasonal factors, the possibility of the existence of an end.

After the potential to depend on copper demand factors. We still maintain the pre-view, long-term bullish for copper, the short-term copper prices continue to rise in support has been significantly less than kinetic energy. We believe that the trend of the late copper support will return to fundamentals, the demand for copper will be able to pick up the key. However, the full year, the current price of copper may have reached a high point, post-concussion before copper prices more likely.